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Korea’s three major shipbuilders have secured over USD 23 billion in new orders so far this year, maintaining a solid performance above the level required to sustain their order books.

According to industry data, order intake year-to-date by company stands at:

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (KSOE): USD 13.149 billion (98 vessels)

Samsung Heavy Industries (SHI): USD 5.772 billion (28 vessels)

Hanwha Ocean: USD 4.182 billion (21 vessels)

The combined annual order target of the three shipbuilders is USD 37.722 billion, with a current achievement rate of about 61%.

Container Ship Boom Offsets LNG Order Gap

Despite a sharp decline in orders for LNG carriers, traditionally Korea’s strongest segment, major builders have more than compensated with container ship orders. The “Big Three” have already won contracts for 48 container ships this year, surpassing the 32 recorded in all of 2024.

They are also eyeing additional orders from leading global carriers such as HMM, Yang Ming, Evergreen, and A.P. Moller – Maersk.

If LNG carrier ordering resumes later this year, the three companies could surpass last year’s total order intake of USD 37.621 billion (279 vessels).

Daishin Securities projects that of the 38 mtpa (million tons per annum) of LNG terminal projects worldwide expected to reach FID (Final Investment Decision) in 2025, the U.S. accounts for 36 mtpa. With FID restrictions easing, rapidly growing U.S. LNG production is likely to drive fresh LNG carrier orders to Korean yards.

Some analysts also argue that even without LNG carriers, orders for other vessel types can sufficiently offset the gap. Kang Kyung-tae, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, noted, “Securing just one or two project-based orders from major container carriers, typically placed in six-vessel units, can generate the same impact as LNG carriers ordered in line with LNG terminal cargo volumes.”

Offshore Plants Seen as Key to Annual Targets

Others contend that this year’s order targets may ultimately hinge on offshore plants rather than merchant ships. Even amid the energy transition, deepwater oil and gas fields remain irreplaceable short-term supply sources, driving renewed demand for large offshore projects such as FPSOs (Floating Production, Storage and Offloading units) and FLNGs (Floating LNG production units).

Offshore plants are also critical in easing concerns over a potential peak-out in merchant vessel demand, with expectations for fresh FLNG orders by year-end remaining strong.

Shipbuilding Market Outlook: Temporary Pause, Then Recovery

Looking ahead to 2026, industry forecasts remain optimistic. While this year’s slowdown in global merchant ship orders is undeniable, the consensus is that the downturn is temporary.

From 2026 onward, LNG carrier orders are expected to return in force, enabling Korean shipyards to secure large-scale contracts at premium prices compared with the global average.

Unlike the steep downturn following the 2008 financial crisis, today’s cycle is less vulnerable. Limited expansion of available yard capacity suggests that even if a demand shock occurs, ship prices are unlikely to see a sharp, rapid decline.

The article was provided by ASIASIS.

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